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Japan Recovers; Korea Exports

JapanOur underlying assumption for the Japanese economy is that it is beginning to turn the corner with expected 2000 GDP growth of 1.3% (versus 0.3% last year) but significant economic transformations remain.

Japan
Our underlying assumption for the Japanese economy is that it is beginning to turn the corner with expected 2000 GDP growth of 1.3% (versus 0.3% last year) but significant economic transformations remain. Basic indices including industrial production and machinery orders have turned positive. However, debates over the government's monetary policy continue, traditional businesses are restructuring, and financial institutions need to recapitalize. All these issues place a burden on consumer confidence.

Japan's light vehicle production declined 2.36% in 1999CY to 9.1 million units from the prior calendar year as sluggish domestic demand and slow exports affected output. In 2000CY, CSM expects overall Japanese output to increase by 1.1% to 9.2 million units due in large part to brisk demand from export markets.

Behind the volumes, Toyota introduced the NBC (New Basic Car) in 1999—a platform with innovative concepts targeting young buyer groups. Nissan will launch 22 new products over the next three years. Nissan expects to boost sales with a remodeledBlubird/Pulser (GN), Cima (Q45) and ZR-small SUV for late 2000CY. Honda has minimized its number of platforms and sees no sign of slowing as sales of the remodeled Odyssey (NI), Life (SG) and Logo (IB) contribute.

Korea
As for South Korea, the near-term macroeconomic assumptions remain strong, although slightly softer than the rapid 1999 turn around from 1998's recession. Economic growth is forecast to come in slightly above 8% for 2000 and 6% for 2001 (versus 10.7% growth in 1999). As with Japan, significant corporate restructuring is slated to occur, particularly within the automotive sector, where foreign acquisitions are occurring. Unlike Japan, consumers appear positively disposed to these changes as restructuring has increased productivity along with lower unemployment and higher real wages.

Korea's light vehicle production jumped 44.9% to 2.76 million units in 1999CY as compared with the prior year. Strong exports continue to North American and Europe. Daewoo boosted sales with its Musso (Y100) and Korando (K100), both SUVs, while sales of Matiz (M100) small car declined. Hyundai's new models—the Spectra (SD) small sedan, Optima (MS) midsize sedan, and remodeled Avante (XD)—raised its output.

Japanese Light Vehicle Output1999CY2000CYY/Y%
Toyota (Including Daihatsu)
NBC (Vitz/Pratz/Funcargo/bB/Will Vi)
560T/810T (Corolla/Carina/Celica/Prius/etc)
414T/300N (RX300/Camry/ES300/Opa/Vista)
NU/029N (Land Cruiser/4 Runner/Hilux)
L (Opti/Move/Mira/Naked)
Total Other

492,603
596,806
410,451
456,167
346,685
1,000,657

710,165
595,420
441,598
430,591
383,472
900,303

44.2%
-0.2%
7.6%
-5.6%
10.6%
-10.0%
Total Total Light Vehicle Production3,615,8862,755,3603.9%
Renault/Nissan
MS (Sunny/AD Wagon/Pulser/Presea/Tino)
PQ/SD/ASD (Cefiro/Maxima/Crew)
K (March/Cube)
R50 (Terrano/Regulus)
M (Vanette/Serena/Prairie)
Total Other

315,448
156,340
134,341
125,425
88,223
455,778

290,107
204,217
140,449
122,433
100,350
404,013

-8.0%
30.6%
4.5%
-2.4%
13.7%
-11.4%
Total Renault/Nissan Light Vehicle Production1,275,5551,261,569-1.1%
Honda
AP/JK/JM/CS (Civic/CR-V/Integra/C-MV)
KC/SG (Life/Z)
NE/IN/CO (Accord/Torneo/Avancier/Aska)
PC (Odyssey)
J (Capa/Logo/HR-V)
Total Other

359,009
192,146
156,987
59,653
135,817
273,948

384,970
189,421
129,042
124,754
121,631
243,590

7.2%
-1.4%
-17.8%
109.1%
-10.4%
-11.1%
Total Honda Light Vehicle Production1,177,5601,193,4081.3%
DC/Mitsubishi
MG/JT41 (Mirage/Lancer/Dingo/Dion/Libero)
FF (Minica/Toppo BJ)
FR (Minicab/Pajero IO)
ST/PS (Challenger/Galant/Legnum)
CK (Pajero/Delica Space Gear)
Total Other

214,865
161,317
179,502
141,028
83,349
124,132

231,845
166,261
155,288
134,481
127,222
86,875

7.9%
3.1%
-13.5%
-4.6%
52.6%
-30.0%
Total DC/Mitsubishi Light Vehicle Production904,193901,972-0.2%
Ford/Mazda
J55 (Familia/Familia S Wagon)
J18/J25 (Capella/Capella Wagon/Premacy)
D (Demio)
J82/J16 (MPV)
E9Bongo/Friendee)
Total Other

256,509
153,360
114,658
74,011
78,300
77,522

217,326
154,505
111,977
100,337
78,903
86,835

-15.3%
0.7%
-2.3%
35.6%
0.8%
12.0%
Total Ford/Mazda Light Vehicle Production754,360749,883-0.6%
Suzuki
YJ (Wagon R/Swift/Kei)
TC/TY (Carry/Every)
YF (Alto)
JL (Escudo)
AA (Cultus)
Total Other

345,506
165,909
125,083
84,367
70,983
50,771

354,569
166,885
121,790
74,718
52,619
40,675

2.6%
0.6%
-2.6%
-11.4%
-25.9%
-19.9%
Total Suzuki Light Vehicle Production842,619811,256-3.7%
Subaru
55A/44S (Impreza/Forester)
REX (Preo)
22C/66L (Legacy)
E (Samber)

187,360
115,739
102,357
73,633

173,254
100,649
115,369
66,270

-7.5%
-13.0%
12.7%
-10.0%
Total Subaru Light Vehicle Production479,089455,542-4.9%
Isuzu
UBS (Trooper)
UCR (Rodeo, Vehicross)

47,883
48,107

75,181
42,612

57.0%
-11.4%
Total Suzuki Light Vehicle Production842,619811,256-3.7%
Subaru
55A/44S (Impreza/Forester)
REX (Preo)
22C/66L (Legacy)
E (Samber)

187,360
115,739
102,357
73,633

173,254
100,649
115,369
66,270

-7.5%
-13.0%
12.7%
-10.0%
Total Isuzu Light Vehicle Production95,990117,79322.7%
Total Japan Light Vehicle Production9,145,2629,246,7831.1%
Korean Light Vehicle Output1999CY2000CYY/Y%
Daewoo
M100 (Matiz)
T100 (Lanos/Lanos II)
J100 (Nubira/Nubira II)
V100/V200 (Leganza/Magnus)
Y100 (Musso)
Total Other

303,182
139,326
145,755
81,866
38,464
142,159

230,516
145,284
132,954
72,892
46,269
183,928

-24.0%
4.3%
-8.8%
-11.0%
20.3%
29.4%
Total Daewoo Light Vehicle Production850,752811,843-4.6%
Hyundai/Kia
J2/J3 (Avante/XD/Tiburon/Santa Fe)
H1 (EF Sonata/Trajet/Optima)
LC (Verna)
S (Sephia A2/Carens/Shuma)
FF (Atoz/Visto)
Total Other

264,141
192,110
130,514
223,981
120,188
968,459

361,660
319,514
297,635
228,447
120,005
948,257

36.9%
66.3%
128.0%
2.0%
-0.2%
-2.1%
Total Hyundai Light Vehicle Production1,899,3932,275,51819.8%
Samsung
PQ/SD/ASD (SM5)

6,362

25,492

300.7%
Total Samsung Light Vehicle Production6,36225,492300.7%
Total Korea Light Vehicle Production2,756,5073,112,85312.9%

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