Japan
Our underlying assumption for the Japanese economy is that it is beginning to turn the corner with expected 2000 GDP growth of 1.3% (versus 0.3% last year) but significant economic transformations remain. Basic indices including industrial production and machinery orders have turned positive. However, debates over the government's monetary policy continue, traditional businesses are restructuring, and financial institutions need to recapitalize. All these issues place a burden on consumer confidence.
Japan's light vehicle production declined 2.36% in 1999CY to 9.1 million units from the prior calendar year as sluggish domestic demand and slow exports affected output. In 2000CY, CSM expects overall Japanese output to increase by 1.1% to 9.2 million units due in large part to brisk demand from export markets.
Behind the volumes, Toyota introduced the NBC (New Basic Car) in 1999—a platform with innovative concepts targeting young buyer groups. Nissan will launch 22 new products over the next three years. Nissan expects to boost sales with a remodeledBlubird/Pulser (GN), Cima (Q45) and ZR-small SUV for late 2000CY. Honda has minimized its number of platforms and sees no sign of slowing as sales of the remodeled Odyssey (NI), Life (SG) and Logo (IB) contribute.
Korea
As for South Korea, the near-term macroeconomic assumptions remain strong, although slightly softer than the rapid 1999 turn around from 1998's recession. Economic growth is forecast to come in slightly above 8% for 2000 and 6% for 2001 (versus 10.7% growth in 1999). As with Japan, significant corporate restructuring is slated to occur, particularly within the automotive sector, where foreign acquisitions are occurring. Unlike Japan, consumers appear positively disposed to these changes as restructuring has increased productivity along with lower unemployment and higher real wages.
Korea's light vehicle production jumped 44.9% to 2.76 million units in 1999CY as compared with the prior year. Strong exports continue to North American and Europe. Daewoo boosted sales with its Musso (Y100) and Korando (K100), both SUVs, while sales of Matiz (M100) small car declined. Hyundai's new models—the Spectra (SD) small sedan, Optima (MS) midsize sedan, and remodeled Avante (XD)—raised its output.
| Japanese Light Vehicle Output | 1999CY | 2000CY | Y/Y% |
| Toyota (Including Daihatsu) NBC (Vitz/Pratz/Funcargo/bB/Will Vi) 560T/810T (Corolla/Carina/Celica/Prius/etc) 414T/300N (RX300/Camry/ES300/Opa/Vista) NU/029N (Land Cruiser/4 Runner/Hilux) L (Opti/Move/Mira/Naked) Total Other | 492,603 596,806 410,451 456,167 346,685 1,000,657 | 710,165 595,420 441,598 430,591 383,472 900,303 | 44.2% -0.2% 7.6% -5.6% 10.6% -10.0% |
| Total Total Light Vehicle Production | 3,615,886 | 2,755,360 | 3.9% |
| Renault/Nissan MS (Sunny/AD Wagon/Pulser/Presea/Tino) PQ/SD/ASD (Cefiro/Maxima/Crew) K (March/Cube) R50 (Terrano/Regulus) M (Vanette/Serena/Prairie) Total Other | 315,448 156,340 134,341 125,425 88,223 455,778 | 290,107 204,217 140,449 122,433 100,350 404,013 | -8.0% 30.6% 4.5% -2.4% 13.7% -11.4% |
| Total Renault/Nissan Light Vehicle Production | 1,275,555 | 1,261,569 | -1.1% |
| Honda AP/JK/JM/CS (Civic/CR-V/Integra/C-MV) KC/SG (Life/Z) NE/IN/CO (Accord/Torneo/Avancier/Aska) PC (Odyssey) J (Capa/Logo/HR-V) Total Other | 359,009 192,146 156,987 59,653 135,817 273,948 | 384,970 189,421 129,042 124,754 121,631 243,590 | 7.2% -1.4% -17.8% 109.1% -10.4% -11.1% |
| Total Honda Light Vehicle Production | 1,177,560 | 1,193,408 | 1.3% |
| DC/Mitsubishi MG/JT41 (Mirage/Lancer/Dingo/Dion/Libero) FF (Minica/Toppo BJ) FR (Minicab/Pajero IO) ST/PS (Challenger/Galant/Legnum) CK (Pajero/Delica Space Gear) Total Other | 214,865 161,317 179,502 141,028 83,349 124,132 | 231,845 166,261 155,288 134,481 127,222 86,875 | 7.9% 3.1% -13.5% -4.6% 52.6% -30.0% |
| Total DC/Mitsubishi Light Vehicle Production | 904,193 | 901,972 | -0.2% |
| Ford/Mazda J55 (Familia/Familia S Wagon) J18/J25 (Capella/Capella Wagon/Premacy) D (Demio) J82/J16 (MPV) E9Bongo/Friendee) Total Other | 256,509 153,360 114,658 74,011 78,300 77,522 | 217,326 154,505 111,977 100,337 78,903 86,835 | -15.3% 0.7% -2.3% 35.6% 0.8% 12.0% |
| Total Ford/Mazda Light Vehicle Production | 754,360 | 749,883 | -0.6% |
| Suzuki YJ (Wagon R/Swift/Kei) TC/TY (Carry/Every) YF (Alto) JL (Escudo) AA (Cultus) Total Other | 345,506 165,909 125,083 84,367 70,983 50,771 | 354,569 166,885 121,790 74,718 52,619 40,675 | 2.6% 0.6% -2.6% -11.4% -25.9% -19.9% |
| Total Suzuki Light Vehicle Production | 842,619 | 811,256 | -3.7% |
| Subaru 55A/44S (Impreza/Forester) REX (Preo) 22C/66L (Legacy) E (Samber) | 187,360 115,739 102,357 73,633 | 173,254 100,649 115,369 66,270 | -7.5% -13.0% 12.7% -10.0% |
| Total Subaru Light Vehicle Production | 479,089 | 455,542 | -4.9% |
| Isuzu UBS (Trooper) UCR (Rodeo, Vehicross) | 47,883 48,107 | 75,181 42,612 | 57.0% -11.4% |
| Total Suzuki Light Vehicle Production | 842,619 | 811,256 | -3.7% |
| Subaru 55A/44S (Impreza/Forester) REX (Preo) 22C/66L (Legacy) E (Samber) | 187,360 115,739 102,357 73,633 | 173,254 100,649 115,369 66,270 | -7.5% -13.0% 12.7% -10.0% |
| Total Isuzu Light Vehicle Production | 95,990 | 117,793 | 22.7% |
| Total Japan Light Vehicle Production | 9,145,262 | 9,246,783 | 1.1% |
| Korean Light Vehicle Output | 1999CY | 2000CY | Y/Y% |
| Daewoo M100 (Matiz) T100 (Lanos/Lanos II) J100 (Nubira/Nubira II) V100/V200 (Leganza/Magnus) Y100 (Musso) Total Other | 303,182 139,326 145,755 81,866 38,464 142,159 | 230,516 145,284 132,954 72,892 46,269 183,928 | -24.0% 4.3% -8.8% -11.0% 20.3% 29.4% |
| Total Daewoo Light Vehicle Production | 850,752 | 811,843 | -4.6% |
| Hyundai/Kia J2/J3 (Avante/XD/Tiburon/Santa Fe) H1 (EF Sonata/Trajet/Optima) LC (Verna) S (Sephia A2/Carens/Shuma) FF (Atoz/Visto) Total Other | 264,141 192,110 130,514 223,981 120,188 968,459 | 361,660 319,514 297,635 228,447 120,005 948,257 | 36.9% 66.3% 128.0% 2.0% -0.2% -2.1% |
| Total Hyundai Light Vehicle Production | 1,899,393 | 2,275,518 | 19.8% |
| Samsung PQ/SD/ASD (SM5) | 6,362 | 25,492 | 300.7% |
| Total Samsung Light Vehicle Production | 6,362 | 25,492 | 300.7% |
| Total Korea Light Vehicle Production | 2,756,507 | 3,112,853 | 12.9% |
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