A thought has been rolling around in my head, one both preposterous but plausible.
And its Toyotas tenaciousness that makes me think its possible,
especially as Toyota plans to control 15% of the global automotive market in
the coming years. This is a goal that would necessitate the addition of two
million units to its already strong sales, and that will not come without a
major acquisition or joint venture.
Buying the remaining small, weak players in the world market would ratchet-up
Toyotas market share, but they wouldnt give it the specific gravity
to go toe-to-toe with GM. That would require a meatier purchase, or a long-term
joint venture that cedes management control over time to Toyota in exchange
for higher profits and a boatload of cash. One that lets management claim its
brilliance ensured the long-term survival of the partner corporation.
Unlike Daimler Benz, Toyota is very sensitive to the appearance of a takeover,
and the need to sell this marriage as a win-win for all involved. If times are
tough, positioning the deal as a cash/management/technology infusion designed
to return its partner to health would mitigate much of the fear and confusion
that surround such endeavors. And it would make Toyota a good neighbor coming
to the aid of a fellow automaker, rather than a corporate colossus intent on
devouring all who lie before it.
If times are good, the deal depends on the willingness of the partner to sign
on to a strategy that replaces the accustomed boom-and-bust cycles with an arrangement
that gives shareholders a consequential cash return and steady dividends. It
would necessitate the abandonment of any pretense of fighting back alone, or
replacing the current business-logic culture with a more warrior-like personality,
one that strives to innovate in order to keep ahead.
There are a lot of things that could destroy these scenarios. A national government
could decide that it was better to prop up the company rather than let it fall
into foreign hands. Toyota could make some missteps while its potential partner
moves from strength to strength, making it far more difficult for it to swallow
the revitalized target. Public outcry could force Toyota to rethink its strategy
entirely, possibly abandoning this tack for one less open to public scorn. There
are any number of scenarios that make this plan obsolete, each well within the
realm of possibility.
However, Toyotas drive to equal, then pass, General Motors wont
go away. It is nothing if not tenacious, and has shown incredible patience when
pursuing its prey. Failure is not an option, though success may take years.
And it is this single-mindedness, coupled with the competitive landscape, that
makes a takeover all the more likely. The only question that remains is: When
will it happen?
Currently, its cheaper to build cars and trucks at a loss than to unload
industrial property. Its cheaper still to borrow platforms from overseas
divisions than it is to support the design and engineering staff necessary to
develop these vehicles in North America. And it doesnt take much to imagine
a day when William Clay Ford, Sr.the last living tie to the founding Fordsis
gone, and the nearly 200 offspring supported by this global concern are more
interested in profits than in making the sacrifices necessary to keep their
legacy independent. A takeover of Ford by Toyota may be a long-shot, but its
not an impossibility.